Strange Orange Governor Makes Lots Of Friends, Realizes No One Actually Likes Him

Florida Governor Charlie Crist - who failed the bar twice - racked up friends among Florida's legal and political "elite" over the past few years.

(See: http://charliecrist.com/2009/08/florida-rnc-national-committeeman-paul-senft-endorses-charlie-crist-for-the-united-states-senate/

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2009/12/photos-governor-signs-landmark-rail-bill.html

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/07/vern-buchanan-likes-crist-for-us-senate.html

http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/04/03/mack-bows-out/

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2006/08/leonhardt_rober.html )

These "friends" of Crist even pressured Rubio to drop out last summer and started widely circulated rumors that Rubio's departure was imminent.

But throughout the past year, straw poll after straw poll and anecdote after anecdote from conservative circles in the sunshine state seemed to tell a different tale. Now the formal polls do too: A Rasmussen Poll released today has Rubio up by 12 and pulling away.

Beyond the positive implication for conservative Republicans, there is a big lesson to be learned about the changing nature of political influence.

The good people over at Berman and Company have a habit of pointing out that while twenty years ago back room politics were everything, influence on public opinion matters much more now. The most well-oiled, sophisticated public relations machines now seek mass based public support in addition to well placed connections.

Public support is undoubtedly less of a factor when it comes to appropriations or jargon-laden regulations or the finer points of legislative language (all very important and potentially very lucrative issues.) But when it comes to black and white decisions, for instance votes on major legislation (think ObamaCare) or elections, "king makers" in smoke filled rooms are losing their influence.

We predict that Marco Rubio will be the 2010 Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Florida and Charlie Crist may not even stay in the race until primary election day. The biggest lesson to be learned from this is about the dying influence of hometown bosses. Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh have a bigger influence on local politics today than does the oldest partner at the local white shoe firm.

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